The recent escalation of trade tensions following the introduction of new tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump is creating interesting trading opportunities in global markets. Analysts have identified several sectors and indices that could experience significant declines in the short term as a result of these measures.
European Automakers Under Pressure
The automotive industry is one of the most exposed sectors to trade restrictions. The Volkswagen Group is facing significant challenges – the company has already suspended deliveries to the U.S. and is holding approximately 37,000 cars in American ports, which is equivalent to two months’ worth of sales. Analysts estimate that a 25% tariff could result in an annual loss of up to 1.8 billion EUR for VW. Similarly, Stellantis (maker of Peugeot, Fiat, and Jeep brands) could see its operating profit drop by more than 15%, according to Wedbush analysts. In contrast, BMW and Mercedes-Benz are less affected due to their substantial production capacity directly in the U.S.
Tech Sector in Uncertainty
Analysts at Jefferies have labeled the new tariffs as a “free pass” for tech companies to lower their profitability outlooks. Meta has seen the most dramatic price target revision, dropping by 17%, from 725 USD to 600 USD. Beyond the major tech giants, Micron Technology is particularly vulnerable due to its strong reliance on exports to China, which could lead to a profitability decline of 20-25%. European company Infineon Technologies, which supplies chips to the automotive industry, faces a potential drop of 10-15%, while Dutch company ASML, reliant on Chinese demand for lithography machines, could see a decline between 12-18%.
S&P 500 Under Growing Pressure
According to Barclays’ analysis, a universal 10% tariff on imports from all countries, combined with a 60% or higher tariff on Chinese goods, could reduce earnings for companies in the S&P 500 index by 3.2% in 2025. The situation could worsen if other countries retaliate with countermeasures. The current market sentiment suggests that the next few weeks could be especially volatile for the index, with the greatest declines expected in sectors highly dependent on global supply chains, such as materials, consumer goods, and industry.
Australian and Asian Markets in Turmoil
The Australian S&P/ASX 200 index has already experienced a dramatic 4.2% decline, representing a loss of about 112 billion USD. Other Asian economies are similarly sensitive – South Korea, where 25% of exports go to China, could face an estimated GDP decline of 0.8-1%, according to the IMF. Malaysia and Thailand, which serve as manufacturing hubs for technology, may experience a potential outflow of foreign direct investment and a 5-10% drop in exports, according to the World Bank. These markets present attractive opportunities for short-term downward trades.
Other Affected Sectors
Airlines such as Lufthansa and Air France are highly sensitive to economic slowdowns, with a potential 15-25% decline in case of a recession, according to JP Morgan. Luxury goods manufacturers, including LVMH and Kering, which are heavily reliant on Chinese demand, may face margin reductions of 10-15% if Asian markets cool, according to Barclays analysts. These sectors offer interesting opportunities for tactical positioning in the short term.
Analytical Outlook for the Upcoming Week
For the period of April 7-13, 2025, analysts recommend paying particular attention to shares of Volkswagen Group and Stellantis, where there is potential for a 15-20% decline from current prices, with a recommended stop-loss set above 5%. In the tech sector, Micron Technology is identified as the most attractive candidate for short-selling, with a potential target of 20% below the current market price. Given the high volatility, experts advise using trailing stop-losses to manage risk. For Asian exposures, analysts identify the Korean KOSPI index as the most sensitive to the current tensions, with a potential further decline of 5-8% over the next week.
