Apple shares (AAPL) have been one of the hottest topics on the financial markets in recent weeks. Investors are speculating on how the long-term impact of artificial intelligence, Trump’s tariffs, and competition in the smartphone segment will affect Apple’s corporate results and share price. Another factor that could potentially affect Apple’s share price is the long-awaited Apple event this Tuesday evening, September 9. It will be Apple’s biggest event of the year, with the iPhone taking center stage.
The revolutionary, ultra-thin iPhone 17, nicknamed Air, is set to be launched. With a promised thickness of approximately 5.5 mm, it will be more than 2 mm thinner than the iPhone 16. In addition, updates to the Apple Watch Ultra 3 and AirPods Pro 3, new cases, and many other surprises are expected. What predictions can be made about Apple’s share price before the launch of Apple’s new products?
How much are Apple shares worth today?
As of September 9, 2025, Apple shares are trading at approximately $237.88. The company has a current market capitalization of over $3 trillion, a P/E ratio of 30.27, and earnings per share (EPS) of $6.59. These indicators confirm that Apple undoubtedly remains one of the most stable and closely watched stocks on global markets.
In recent months, the price has fluctuated between $230 and $240, reflecting investor expectations ahead of the launch of new products, particularly the iPhone 17, its Air variant, and the iPhone 17 Pro.
Apple share price development
Investors are primarily mindful of the factors that influence Apple’s share price development:
- iPhone sales – in the last fiscal year, they accounted for approximately 48% of Apple’s total revenue, or around USD 200 billion. Each new model (including the anticipated iPhone 17 Air) is therefore a key driver of the stock.
- Services (App Store, iCloud, Apple Music) – this division generated more than $90 billion in 2024, growing at a double-digit rate year-on-year. Services have higher margins than hardware, which is why investors view them as a stabilizing factor.
- AI – Investments in artificial intelligence and the planned integration of advanced Siri in 2026 are seen as key to further growth. Analysts expect AI to help Apple expand further.
- Buybacks and dividends – Apple is a leader in buying back its own shares. In 2024, the company bought back shares worth over $80 billion and paid dividends of around $15 billion, which supports the price for shareholders.
- Geopolitics and China – approximately 17% of sales come from China. Risks associated with tariffs and the supply chain are forcing Apple to diversify its production to India and Southeast Asia. Any change in trade policy between the US and China thus significantly affects sentiment.
- Valuation – the current P/E ratio of around 30 is above the historical average for the technology sector. This means that investors are already factoring in high growth potential, and the share price is sensitive to any disappointment in results.
Short-term expectations: the “sell-the-news” effect
History shows that after the launch of a new iPhone, Apple’s share price often stagnates or declines slightly in the short term. Analysts at Bank of America point to the classic “sell-the-news” effect—investors buy before the announcement but then take profits. This could lead to a slight decline this year as well, even though the iPhone 17 Air itself has the potential to appeal to many users of older iPhone generations. Analysts estimate that Apple will sell around 232 million iPhones in the next fiscal year, which would mean year-on-year growth of around 2% and iPhone sales of over $220 billion.
Medium-term outlook: conservative optimism
The consensus of most analysts is within a relatively narrow range. TipRanks reports an average target price of $238.95, StockAnalysis.com $238.09, and MarketWatch as high as $240.23. However, the range is wide, from a pessimistic $160 to an optimistic $300. This suggests that the market expects stability rather than dramatic growth over the next 12 months.
Long-term potential: it’s not just about the iPhone
The key factor for Apple in the coming years will not only be new phones, but especially services and the integration of artificial intelligence. According to Investopedia, analysts estimate that Apple is strengthening its AI activities so significantly that it could change the competitive dynamics in the market.
The most optimistic scenarios for Apple in the long term predict record sales of around 240 million iPhones per year and strong growth in services, which have higher margins than hardware. In that case, the price of a single Apple share could rise to as much as $325. If Apple can combine hardware, services, and AI into a comprehensive ecosystem, it could be a gold mine for shareholders.
Risks: geopolitics and manufacturing
When predicting Apple’s share price, certain risks cannot be overlooked. Rising tariffs between the US and China could increase costs and prices for iPhones in the US market, even though Apple is strategically shifting part of its manufacturing to India. The transition to more robotized manufacturing also carries initial risks in terms of quality and flexibility.
Geopolitical tensions may thus affect margins, which is a sensitive issue for investors. According to The Guardian, Apple is intensively diversifying its supply chain to minimize the impact of potential trade wars.
Recommendation to investors
In the short term, volatility rather than clear growth can be expected after the launch of the iPhone 17. The “sell-the-news” effect is well known and can lead to a temporary decline in price. Under such conditions, investors already holding AAPL shares are advised to continue doing so. Over a 12-month horizon, most analysts expect Apple shares to hover around current levels, i.e., roughly $235–240.
However, it is crucial for long-term investors to monitor the strategy in the area of services and AI. Whether the iPhone 17 Air will actually bring about more significant growth will only become clear in the coming quarters.
