China launched military exercises around Taiwan on Tuesday, with land, naval, air, and missile forces “approaching” the island from “multiple directions” and practicing “strikes on maritime and land targets and blockade of key areas.” According to Beijing, this is a warning to Taiwan’s president Lai Ching-te after he labeled China a “hostile foreign force.”
Clear Show of Force
Chinese authorities were completely transparent about the purpose of the exercises: “This is punishment for the Lai Ching-te administration’s ‘pro-independence’ provocations,” stated Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office. She pointed to Lai’s March 13 speech, in which he outlined 17 measures against Chinese subversion and espionage in Taiwan, including:
- Restoring military tribunals for espionage cases involving military personnel
- Strengthening oversight of cultural, political, and religious exchanges with China
Limited Scope of Escalation
Despite harsh rhetoric, it remained unclear how long the exercises would last. Analysts believe they are meant to intimidate Taiwan rather than escalate into broader confrontation.
Taiwan’s Defense Ministry reported 19 Chinese military vessels operating near the island and the approach of the aircraft carrier Shandong. “Political symbolism stands out more this time,” said Su Tzu-yun, a researcher at the Institute for National Defense in Taipei. “China is trying to exert greater psychological pressure.”
Message to the Trump Administration
Experts believe Chinese leadership is also sending a message to the Trump administration. Lai is seeking to maintain U.S. support for Taiwan and has promised to increase military spending to more than 3% of the island’s economic output.
“The exercises likely have the U.S. in mind – they want to convince the Trump administration that Lai is a troublemaker,” said Amanda Hsiao, an analyst at Eurasia Group. The exercises came shortly after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth visited Tokyo, where he pledged to strengthen military ties with Japan and the Philippines against “Chinese aggression” in the Indo-Pacific region.
Economic Context
China likely has no interest in prolonged exercises that could deepen divisions between the Trump administration and Xi Jinping. Xi is already facing Trump over U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, with the possibility of additional tariffs this week. Official statements about the exercises make no mention of the United States.
