Tesla (TSLA) shares are among the most talked about in the world, and understanding their market dynamics can be challenging for investors. The company recently introduced new, cheaper car models designed to appeal to the widest possible audience, but the stock market’s response has been mixed. What positive and negative milestones has the company, and its stock, gone through recently? What predictions are circulating among analysts regarding the development of Tesla’s share price in the foreseeable future?
Tesla Shares: Development in Recent Years
Tesla has experienced rapid growth in recent years. Since 2020, it has expanded not only in the US, but also in Europe and Asia. At the end of 2020, TSLA’s share price was around $235, while a year later it was already around $352 (the prices quoted in this article are adjusted for stock splits). TSLA’s value grew mainly thanks to innovations, the production of new models, and a significant increase in battery factory capacity. Nevertheless, profits did not develop linearly, which is typical for technology companies: investments in R&D and expansion often reduce net profit in the short term.
The year 2022 was particularly challenging for Tesla, with its shares experiencing a significant decline. Neither the pace of growth nor the volume of deliveries that year met the expectations of investors, who had reflected high ambitions in the share price. Another factor was weakening demand for electric cars, especially in the key Chinese market, where the Shanghai factory had to be temporarily closed. To boost sales, Tesla began offering discounts and increased incentives, which had a negative impact on profitability and pushed down margins. At the same time, macroeconomic pressures, rising interest rates, and fears of an economic slowdown weighed on the share price. These and other catalysts triggered a massive sell-off of shares, and by the end of 2022, their price had fallen to around $109. However, the following few years brought a recovery. Tesla celebrated Christmas 2024 with shares already priced at around $460.
Tesla Shares: Development During 2025
This year has brought several surprises for investors holding TSLA. The first few months were marked by significant stock declines. In March, the price fell to approximately $230 per share, while in April, the decline deepened to $214. These market declines were, of course, caused by more than one factor, this time including growing competition in the electric vehicle segment (especially from Chinese manufacturers), production and supply chain difficulties, and pressure on margins. In addition, some investors were concerned about CEO Elon Musk’s growing political involvement and the company’s image.Now, in the third quarter, the company delivered an incredible 497,099 vehicles – a year-on-year increase of approximately 7%, which exceeded market expectations. In addition, the company recorded record production and installation of 12.5 GWh of battery storage, confirming its leading position in energy solutions. Tesla has continued to report revenue growth, reflecting strong demand for electric vehicles. However, while its revenues have grown, net income has fallen sharply. The company has undoubtedly been burdened by higher production costs and logistical challenges.Despite these events, the share price is generally recovering. As of November 4, 2025, the price stands at $458.18, and the last dramatic declines were many months ago. This development shows that despite short-term turbulence, Tesla remains attractive to long-term investors, albeit with a significantly higher risk profile, which simply needs to be taken into account when making investment decisions.
Tesla Shares: Predictions for 2026
Predictions for Tesla in 2026 are mixed. On the one hand, continued revenue growth is expected, with some model lines indicating immediate growth of around +16.5% per year. Sales for 2026 are also expected to be around $109 billion. However, margins and profits may remain under pressure: gross margins (excluding regulatory credits) could reach only 16-18% of the auto business. At this stage, investors need to keep an eye on three main factors: the price of raw materials and components (battery cells, which make up a significant part of the costs), production efficiency and logistics (the extent to which Tesla can reduce unit costs through higher volumes and better infrastructure), and finally, demand for electric vehicles and battery solutions (how strong sales will be, especially in new markets with cheaper models, and how quickly the energy storage segment will grow).In the long term, investors can expect Tesla to remain a growth company, especially if it succeeds in implementing its promised technological advances and mass-market models. However, short-term speculation carries risk: if competition or the macro environment deteriorates, the share price may fluctuate unpleasantly.
Where to Buy Tesla Shares?
As investors, you can acquire TSLA not only by directly purchasing individual shares on the stock exchange, but also through ETFs that include Tesla in a broader portfolio.Direct purchase of shares gives investors full control over their stake. Any increase or decrease in price is directly reflected in the value of their investment. The advantage is the potential for higher returns, especially if the stock grows over the long term, and the ability to actively manage your stake, for example, by selling part of your shares when a specific target price is reached. The disadvantage, however, is greater sensitivity to short-term market fluctuations. As we have seen from the performance of Tesla shares in recent years and months, their price can be relatively volatile.A popular alternative is investing in ETFs. These funds typically track indices such as the NASDAQ and S&P 500 and include Tesla among their key components. The advantage of ETFs is lower risk due to diversification: a decline in the value of one stock is offset by the performance of other stocks in the portfolio. ETFs also allow you to invest smaller amounts, which is suitable for novice investors, among others. However, the growth of Tesla’s stock itself will only be partially reflected, depending on its weight within the fund. From this perspective, ETFs are more suitable for investors who are looking for a safer route and want to spread their risk rather than betting on Tesla’s potential.
