The tariff policy of U.S. President Donald Trump remains the key issue for markets, especially following the announcement of technology exemptions from punitive duties. New corporate earnings may reveal how businesses are planning for the future in an environment of uncertainty, while data from China will provide insights into the state of the world’s second-largest economy and the main target of Trump’s tariffs.
1. Tariffs Remain in Focus
Any developments around Trump’s tariff policy will be the main point of interest for investors in the coming days. Over the weekend, Trump clarified technology exemptions from his tariffs, which the White House announced on Friday. Smartphones, computers, and other electronics will be temporarily exempt from reciprocal duties. Technology stocks in China surged sharply, as did Apple (NASDAQ) shares in pre-market trading.
In his post, Trump emphasized that “NOBODY is getting off the hook” for unfair trade barriers. He added that his officials are “taking a look” at semiconductors and the entire electronics supply chain, arguing that more products must be manufactured in the USA.
2. Upcoming Corporate Earnings
Banking giant Goldman Sachs will lead a series of significant corporate earnings on Monday. According to Bloomberg estimates, they are expected to report first-quarter net revenue of $14.76 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $12.26.
Last week, representatives of banks such as JPMorgan Chase and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned that tariffs could burden economic activity. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated that some IPOs and deals were canceled due to tariffs.
Other significant results this week include Bank of America and Citigroup on Tuesday, Abbott Laboratories and Prologis on Wednesday, and Netflix on Thursday.
3. Powell’s Speech
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at the Economic Club in Chicago on Wednesday. Powell previously warned that Trump’s tariffs are “larger than expected” and could trigger increased inflation and slowed growth.
Investors expect assurance that the Fed is ready to intervene if tariffs cause further market turbulence. Analysts emphasize that Powell’s upcoming statement will be the first since Trump’s announcement of a partial 90-day delay of extensive tariffs following significant market shocks.
4. Chinese Economic Data
Economic data from China will provide information about the state of the economy before the implementation of increased tariffs. China’s trade balance grew more than expected in March with a surplus of $102.64 billion.
Exports increased by 12.4% year-on-year, suggesting that American importers are rushing to secure goods before Trump’s tariffs take effect. China’s GDP data for the first quarter will also be released, along with retail sales and industrial production figures.
5. ECB Decision
The European Central Bank has a monetary policy meeting scheduled for Thursday. A reduction in the key deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% is expected.
ECB policymakers could be persuaded to lower borrowing costs below 2% depending on the development of Trump’s tariff policy. The Governor of the Bank of Finland, Olli Rehn, stated that Trump’s trade actions have increased downside risks and strengthened arguments for rate cuts at the April 17 meeting.
